Democratic race settles into two-person contest, while it's a wide-open competition for the Republicans
PAUL KORING
January 10, 2008
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Republican presidential hopes turned to Michigan, Democrats' to Nevada yesterday after tiny New Hampshire recast the race for the White House.
For Republican Mitt Romney, Michigan looms as a must-win, a home-field battleground where he grew up and his father was governor.
For the Mormon and former Massachusetts governor, who invested millions and months in Iowa and New Hampshire, only to lose both, a third defeat in Michigan could effectively finish his White House bid.
"It's just getting started," Mr. Romney, 60, insisted yesterday, but in an ominous sign, his free-spending campaign suspended television advertising in South Carolina.
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The Globe and Mail
For Senator John McCain, buoyed by his New Hampshire victory, a win in Michigan would make him the Republican front-runner, a remarkable turnabout for the 71-year-old former naval aviator and prisoner of war whose presidential bid all but collapsed last summer.
"Nothing is quite as invigorating as a win," Mr. McCain said yesterday on his arrival in Michigan, where the Republican primary is next Tuesday. "We won here in 2000 and we will win again in 2008."
Barack Obama said his disappointing second place in New Hampshire only adds resolve to his White House bid.
"We are the insurgent campaign," the 46-year-old black Illinois senator said after New Hampshire voters refuted the predictions of pollsters and pundits that his momentum was unstoppable.
"Over the last few days, because of our win in Iowa, I think that folks started to anoint us in a way that they were anointing Senator Clinton back in the summer - and that's always a dangerous place to be."
So treacherous is it that Mr. Obama lost, albeit narrowly, to the party-establishment machine headed by Ms. Clinton, 60, whose come-from-behind win in New Hampshire transformed the Democratic race into a tough, two-contender fight.
As if to demonstrate that, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson ended his campaign yesterday after twin fourth-place finishes that showed his impressive credentials could not compete with his rivals' star power.
He planned to announce the decision today, two people close to the governor said.
Ms. Clinton's victory in New Hampshire came at the hands of women, union members and bedrock blue-collar Democrats who turned out in record numbers to right her listing campaign.
She admitted it had been a wild final 48 hours since polls showed her trailing Mr. Obama by double-digits.
"It was an emotional roller-ride," she said yesterday.
"I'm up and I'm at it, and I'm going to keep going as we take on all the rest of the contests between now and Feb. 5." She was referring to Super Tuesday, when more than 20 states vote and more than half of the delegates that will select the presidential standard-bearer of each party are at stake.
The next Democratic contest is Nevada, where yesterday Mr. Obama picked up a key endorsement from the mostly Hispanic Culinary Workers Union, whose 60,000 members service the hotels and casinos in Las Vegas strip.
Beyond Michigan and Nevada looms South Carolina, the next major contest for Republicans on Jan. 19 and the Democrats a week later.
Former senator John Edwards, who was John Kerry's running mate on the unsuccessful 2004 Democratic ticket and who trailed a distant third in both Iowa and New Hampshire this year, must win in South Carolina or face political oblivion.
More than 50 per cent of registered Democrats in South Carolina are black and the primary will be the first head-to-head contest for that key bloc.
"I feel a lot more comfortable now understanding this is a victory we are going to have to earn, and the American people are not just going to hand over the keys to the White House," Mr. Obama said yesterday.
If the Democratic race seems to have settled into a two-person contest, the Republican field remains wide open.
In addition to Mr. McCain, Mr. Romney and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is waiting in the wings after spending little time or money on the small, first states.
"I think his strategy is looking better and better," Paul Cellucci, the Giuliani campaign manager and a former ambassador to Canada, said yesterday.
"Six weeks ago, we were worried about Mitt Romney winning big in Iowa, winning big in New Hampshire."
Instead there have been "different winners in Iowa and in New Hampshire. We could have a different winner in Michigan," while Mr. Giuliani campaigns hard in Florida, and the big states are scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday.
***
The Republican voter
Exit polling of primary voters shows that John McCain is winning support from a broad spectrum of the electorate.
***
NEW HAMPSHIRE
SEX
McCain Romney Huckabee Other
MALE 35% 31% 10% 24%
FEMALE 38% 32% 13% 17%
***
AGE
McCain Romney Huckabee Other
18-24 27% 17% 15% 41%
25-29 37% 33% 11% 19%
30-39 38% 28% 12% 22%
40-49 35% 31% 12% 22%
50-64 38% 30% 12% 20%
65+ 40% 44% 7% 9%
***
FAMILY'S FINANCIAL SITUATION
McCain Romney Huckabee Other
Getting ahead financially 35% 32% 14% 19%
Holding steady 37% 32% 12% 19%
Falling behind 38% 26% 12% 24%
***
DECIDED WHOM TO SUPPORT
McCain Romney Huckabee Other
Today 36% 33% 12% 19%
Within three days of caucus 46% 29% 12% 13%
In the last week 46% 25% 8% 21%
In the last month 32% 32% 14% 22%
Before that 30% 33% 11% 26%
SOURCE: NEW YORK TIMES
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